Optimising passive eDNA sampling: Theoretical framework for time-dependent eDNA accumulation

Prof. Hitoshi Araki1, Prof. Masayuki Sakata1

1Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Japan

Biography:

Hitoshi Araki is Professor of Animal Ecology at Hokkaido University, Japan. His research focuses on evolutionary ecology, population genetics, and biodiversity conservation, with particular emphasis on environmental DNA and freshwater fishes.

Abstract:

Passive eDNA sampling has emerged as a promising approach for integrating DNA signals over deployment time. However, how deployment duration affects the amount of detectable DNA retained by a sampler remains poorly understood. Here, an analytical model was developed to evaluate time-dependent accumulation of detectable DNA in passive eDNA sampling, incorporating DNA input, degradation, substrate capacity, and residual retention of degraded DNA. The model predicts that passive eDNA recovery can show saturating or unimodal dynamics. When degraded DNA continues to occupy substrate capacity, detectable DNA may peak and then decline, and prolonged deployment can even cause higher-input conditions to yield less detectable DNA than lower-input conditions. These results indicate that retrieval time should be optimized by considering DNA supply, degradation dynamics, substrate capacity, and the fate of degraded DNA after adsorption.